Mizzou
Basketball fans should get used to hearing the word bubble for the next few weeks.
In fact, they might want to start searching the internet travel sites for potential
NIT venues, when planning their spring trips. The team is currently sitting at
18-7 overall, and 7-5 in conference play. While not exactly disrespectful, they
haven’t even come close to reaching the lofty expectations they had at the
beginning of the season. The Tigers have managed to dribble themselves right
out of the Top 25 and perhaps out of the Big Dance as well.
It
wasn’t supposed to be this way for Mizzou. The football program was expected to
struggle in the SEC, but
Mizzou Hoops has been something of a national power for several years,
regularly ranked in the top 25, and a familiar guest at the NCAA tourney. They
were predicted by some, to compete with Florida and Kentucky for an SEC title. At
the very least, they were expected to hold their own in the conference known
more for its football prowess. Apparently the conference is not impressed.
Welcome to the SEC.
The Tigers began
the season ranked 14 or 15, depending on which poll you believe, but currently Mizzou
has fallen out of the top 25 in both the AP and the Coaches polls. With #5 Florida in Columbia tonight,
their fall from NCAA grace could accelerate quickly. Should they drop their
next two games to Florida and Kentucky, it’s safe
to say, Mizzou’s “bubble” would burst long before their final game at Tennessee, March 9th.
Yes, Mizzou fans, you absolutely should be concerned about your NCAA chances at
this point, and here’s why.
The
Tigers have won a grand total of one game against a top 25 opponent. It was an
82-73 victory over then #10 Illinois, on a
neutral floor. Conversely, they have suffered blowout losses to then #1 Florida(5), and to then #2 Louisville(10). It
wasn’t just that they lost those games, they were dismantled both times, and
exposed as a team lacking the physicality and the guard play, to run with the
NCAA big dogs. I know they can only play the games on the schedule, but to be a national contender, you have to win the games you're supposed to win, and you have to surprise a few people along the way. It's time for Mizzou to surprise some people tonight.
Speaking
of guard play, what’s up with Phil Pressey? Coach Frank Haith must be wondering
that himself. Pressey was highly touted as a premier point guard when the
season began, but as the season has progressed, we’ve seen him go through
several shooting slumps, and we’ve watched erratic play from the 5’11” Jr point
guard.
When
Pressey looks to involve his teammates, Mizzou is at times, unstoppable. But
Pressey seems to be channeling his inner Allen Iverson at other times. It
appears that he has decided he needs to be a scorer. Forcing plays that aren’t there, throwing
up wild shots at bad times, and turning the ball over at the worst possible
moments. Pressey is much more effective, when he looks to penetrate and then
dish the ball off, taking shots when they are there for him. The kid can shoot
the ball, but when he’s off his game, Mizzou is off its game too. Proving that
old adage, “You’re only as good as your guard play.”
Keion Bell
has been a bright spot for the Tigers at guard, but he is not a true point
player. Pressey is the best ball handler Mizzou has, but he tends to dribble
himself into too many problems. Again, he’s much more effective when he looks
to distribute. Bell can slash
and score the basketball, and he can shoot the spot up J very well. However,
it’s not really in his arsenal to create his own opportunities. Jabari Brown is
a steady player, but the sophomore needs to see more action, to develop confidence.
Coach Haith might need to consider playing Brown more often down the stretch,
particularly when Pressey is struggling to make plays.
Big man
Alex Oriakhi, has shown flashes, but hasn’t really lived up to the hype he
brought from the Big East. He will need to assert himself further, particularly
on the defensive end, and on the boards, if Mizzou is to have any hopes of
beating Florida tonight,
and Kentucky later this
week. Injury ridden Lawrence Bowers also needs to wake up the All Big 12
Defensive Player sleeping inside. Bowers can be dominant, and he will need to
bring that to the floor, if Mizzou wants to sniff the NCAA tourney, and avoid
being cast off into the salty NIT waters.
There is a bright side however. Do not
write off your Tigers just yet. Mizzou still has an opportunity to
impress the voters tonight against the Florida Gators. A perfect 14-0 at home,
the Tigers will need to use every inch of that home court advantage tonight.
They need to get off to a fast start, and they need to avoid turnovers. If the
Tigers can dictate the flow of the game, and stay out of a track meet with the
Gators, they still have a chance to earn a much needed win against a top 25
opponent. Should the Tigers find a way to knock off both Florida and Kentucky this week,
it’s conceivable they could also slip back into the top 25, and keep their “bubble”
afloat.
The Gators
are fresh off an 83-52 drubbing of Auburn, and they
handled Kentucky 69-52 before that. The Gators are a potential #1 seed in the NCAAs, and they are
one of the best teams in the country right now. Their last loss came at Arkansas on
February 5th. Then again, the Tigers know all too well about the
difficulties of winning in Fayetteville, after
dropping a heart breaker there on Saturday, 73-71. A game they not only needed
to win on the road, but should have won.
Florida is led by
senior guard Kenny Boynton, who is really good, and presents a difficult
physical match up for Phil Pressey. Boynton is averaging 13 points per game,
and shoots about 34% from beyond the ark. He is also an 83% free throw shooter,
so the Tigers cannot foul him. Senior Mike Rosario is a 6’3” guard who is also averaging
right at 13ppg. The Florida guards
have size and quickness that is difficult to contend with, but the Tigers can
hang with them, if they can avoid bad decisions and turnovers.
If there is
a weakness in the Florida game, it
may be inside. The Tigers are bigger down low, and they will need to take
advantage of that tonight. If Paul Pressey can commit to using his big men, and
stop thinking he needs to score as much, the Tigers have a chance to upset the
#5 Gators, and breathe a little air into their “bubble.”
The Gators
big men are Erik Murphy, and Patrick Young. Murphy is averaging just
under 13ppg, and Young is averaging 10ppg himself. Murphy is an excellent free
throw shooter, at 83%, so the Tigers cannot allow him to float through the
painted area, and get easy looks at the basket. If they need to foul anybody,
Young is only shooting a dismal 51% from the stripe.
The Gators
are a deeper team than Mizzou, so it’s going to fall on the Mizzou stars, to
win this game, and Paul Pressey needs to help his star teammates shine with
unselfish play. If he could have as many assists as points tonight, say 15 and
15, I think the Tigers can win this game. Hopefully Coach Haith can compel the
young man to share the basketball with his friends. However, if the Tigers,
Pressey in particular, fall in love with the 3 point shot, it could be a long
night for the Black & Gold. Mizzou is shooting about 35% from three, while
the Gators are averaging slightly less than 40% from beyond the ark.
So there
you have it Mizzou faithful. Your bubble is fragile, but it’s still hanging around
for now. The Tigers have two huge challenges this week, and it will take
maximum effort to keep their season from being an early “bubble" wrap.
Rodney Eldridge
The Sportz Yak
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